the 10 investment risks in 2022

 Starting with inflation, there is clearly a wall of concern that investors must climb at the start of the year.

risque d investissement en 2022

While we remain constructive for the year and expect risk assets to continue to perform well, there is clearly a wall of worry investors need to scale as 2022 begins.

  1. Inflation. This word on everyone's lips will also remain one of the main drivers of 2022. If inflation remains high for too long, central banks may "have to" overreact and tighten more aggressively than necessary. Already, one of the concerns of some investors is the complacency of governments and central bankers, which suggests that some believe they are already behind the curve. 

  2. Supply chain disruptions. Omicron could extend supply chain disruptions into 2022 if factory and port closures in China and Asia persist, impacting costs for producers and prices for consumers. Back to risk number 1. 

  3. Central bank error. This year, the question of a central bank error could be interpreted as both too strong action and too weak action. The risk of over-tightening is the most important in our view. 

  4. The Chinese slowdown. Not only are questions about China's regulatory crackdown and how long it will last, but the deleveraging of the real estate sector and the country's zero Covid policy are weighing on growth. 

  5. The fiscal cliff. After unprecedented support in 2020 and 2021, both monetary and fiscal, the taps are closing in 2022, and economies and consumers have grown accustomed to too much support. Markets have already reacted when Biden's "Build Back Better" plan was delayed before the holidays. 

  6. COVID. Every time we start looking beyond COVID and think this virus will soon be in the rearview mirror, another variant pops up to remind us that this pandemic is still here, periodically affecting growth and preventing a reopening. complete and a return to normal. 

  7. Valuations. Valuations are historically high, particularly in certain sectors of the US equity market. As interest rates are expected to rise, multiples could be affected. Given the size of the high-multiple growth megacaps, the indices could be affected in the event of a correction. 

  8. Unsustainable earnings forecasts. With such a rapid and strong rebound in earnings in 2021, high earnings expectations have shifted into 2022, which risks disappointing investors if companies – especially big tech companies – fail to deliver on their promises. 

  9. Political blockage in the United States. Democrats risk losing their slender majority in November's midterm elections, which could end fiscal expansion and lead to political gridlock. Beyond the United States, geopolitics is always a risk of surprise events and bouts of volatility. 

  10. Sale of technology securities. Big tech companies occupy such a place in indexes and in portfolios that a sudden sale of these companies could have strong repercussions.

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