World trade in goods is expected to grow this year by more than 22%, according to the UN, which notes that this trade "already exceeds their pre-Covid-19 level, even if the recovery of services is slower", indicates the UNCTAD, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
According to UNCTAD, world merchandise trade has recovered rapidly, exceeding its pre-crisis level towards the end of 2020. The value of world trade in goods will thus increase sharply, by 15% more than in 2010. before the arrival of the pandemic.
In total, the UNCTAD Statistics Manual 2021 predicts for the year 2021 a sharp increase of 22.4% in the value of world merchandise trade compared to the year 2020. “But UNCTAD's immediate forecast shows that the rate of growth has gradually slowed down during 2021, ”UNCTAD puts into perspective.
Despite a 13.6% growth forecast for 2021 and after a sharp contraction recorded in 2020, UNCTAD forecasts show that world trade in services has not yet reached its pre-pandemic level, while that in goods is expected have exceeded it by 15%.
And these current predictions incorporate the latest available data, but do not reflect “the potential impacts of the new Omicron variant”.
Among services, the travel sector was the hardest hit
"Reliable and up-to-date data is in great demand as the Covid-19 puts unforeseen pressure on policymakers, who are scrambling to contain the economic landscape affected by the pandemic," said UNCTAD Acting Statistics Officer Anu Peltola. "These statistics are needed for evidence-based policy decisions in response to the pandemic."
Overall, the Geneva-based UN agency reports a slower recovery for world trade in services in 2021. At the same time, the recovery trajectory observed in the first six months of 2021 is expected to decline. continue in the third quarter of the same year, with an increase of 23% from the low levels of the same period in 2020.
In contrast, the pace of growth in trade in services is expected to slow in the fourth quarter of 2021, and the sector has yet to reach pre-pandemic levels.
Among services, travel was the hardest hit. They recorded a drastic 63% loss in 2020, which hit tourism-driven economies hard. International transport - including passengers and freight - has fallen by 20% over the past year.
Exports of business services, intellectual property, financial services and insurance were more resilient, falling 3%. At the same time, trade in telecommunications, computer and information services continued to grow throughout the pandemic, except in Africa.
Sharp drops in merchandise and service trade in 2020
This year's data confirms the sharp declines in trade in merchandise and services in 2020. According to the report, global merchandise trade registered a decline of 7.4% in 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic.
World exports amounted to $ 17.6 trillion, a decrease of $ 1.4 trillion from the previous year. This corresponds to the largest annual decline recorded since 2009, when trade fell by 22%.
The decline in the value of world trade in services has been much sharper, with a 20% contraction in 2020 compared to 2019. This is the largest decline in trade in services since 1990. By way of comparison , the value of trade in services fell 9.5% in 2009 as a result of the global financial crisis.
UNCTAD's annual report presents the statistical landscape for 2020 through a wide variety of data relating to international trade, investment, maritime transport and development. It also shows how the situation will develop in 2021 through data-driven projections, known as nowcasting.